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본 연구에서 지칭하는 우편시장은 광의의 의미로 우정사업본부가 영위하는 협의의 우편사업과 민간택배사가 참여하는 시장을 아우른다. 통상우편에 대해서는 우정사업본부가 독점적인 지위를 누리고 있지만 택배시장에서는 민간택배사와 경쟁관계에 있다 할 수 있다. 이와 같은 관계를 포함해 우편시장에 대한 정책과 환경변화의 영향을 타시장과의 관계를 고려해 계측하고 평가하는 것이 본연구의 목표이다. 타시장과의 관계를 염두에 두고 거시적인 관점에서 우편시장을 분석한 연구는 산업연관표 분석에 머물러왔는데 이를 발전시켜 사회계정행렬 분석은 물론 여러 가지 시뮬레이션이 가능한 연산가능 일반균형 모형을 통한 분석으로 발전시켰다. 사회계정행렬 분석은 제도부문까지 포함된다는 장점이, 연산가능일반균형 모형은 많은 변수들을 내생화 시킬 수 있다는 장점이 존재하기 때문이다.
연산가능 일반균형 모형의 기본 자료로도 활용되는 사회계정행렬은 우편시장을 분리해 작성하되, 우편서비스 공급 주체는 민간택배사가 공급하는 택배 서비스도 공급하는 구조를 반영하여 작성하였다. 통상우편 서비스와 택배 서비스는 서비스의 차이를 반영하듯 관련시장과 공급 구조면에서 차이가 존재했다. 예로 통상우편 서비스에 대해 생산유발효과가 큰 산업은 다량우편발송 수요가 있는 사회복지, 공공행정, 금융업인 데 반해 택배 서비스에 대해서는 도소매업이 생산유발효과가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 또한 상대적으로 낮은 임금구조를 반영하여 택배업은 통상우편이 주인 협의의 우편업보다 중간투입률이 높고 부가가치율이 낮은 것으로 나타났으며 이러한 추세는 과거 몇 년간 더욱 심화되는 것으로 파악되었다. 비슷한 업종임에도 불구하고 이러한 두 사업간 차이는 국가사업과 민간사업간의 차이이기도 하기 때문에 시나리오구성에 참고하였다.
사회계정행렬은 일반균형 결과를 소득분위별 분포로 살펴보기 위해 가구부문을 5분위로 나눠 작성하였다. 이를 위해 통상우편서비스와 택배서비스에 대한 지출도 관련자료를 이용하여 구분하였는데 택배서비스가 우편서비스보다 소득분위별로 고르게 이용하는 것으로 파악되었다. 연산가능 일반균형 모형에 필요한 각종 탄력성들은 충분한 자료가 확보되지 않아 통계적으로 엄밀하게 추정하지는 못했지만 경제이론과 부합하는 방향성을 확인하였다. 생산대체탄력성은 우편 1.17 택배 2.9로 예상한 바와 같이 우편업의 상대적으로 경직적인 자본과 노동의 대체성을 확인 할 수 있었다. 소득탄력성은 우편이 0.15 택배가 6이 넘는 수치로 추정되었으나 추정에 사용한 자료의 성격이 달라 수평적인 비교는 힘들 것으로 판단된다.
일반균형 산출 후 산업연관표 분석을 통해 확인된 연관 산업의 환경변화와 우편시장에서 취할 수 있는 정책적 변화를 설정한 후 그 효과를 우편 서비스의 가격변화, 소득분위별 우편서비스에 대한 지출변화, 소득변화, 보상변화로 측정된 효용변화를 중심으로 살펴봤다. 우편 시장이 축소되는 경우 전체 가구에 대한 가중치를 동등하게 하게 할 경우 사회효용은 증가하지만 소득분위간 불균형은 심해지는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 전 산업에 대한 우편 투입률이나 우편서비스업에 대한 생산유발효과가 큰 산업에만 국한하여 우편투입률이 감소하는 경우 모두 동일하게 관찰되는 현상이었다. 이에 대한 정책변화로 우편의 자본투입률이 높아지는 경우와 세율 부과를 고려하였는데 세율부과는 사회효용 변화에 미치는 효과가 미미한 것으로 나타났지만 자본투입률은 전체효용 감소에도 불구하고 소득분위간 불균형을 감소시키는 효과가 있음을 확인하였다. 단 자본집약적인 택배업의 생산성이 향상되는 경우에는 우편의 자본투입률을 높이는 정책이 불균형 감소 효과 없이 사회효용을 전체적으로 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 특정 시나리오 설정을 통해 정책의 효과를 살펴보았지만 이러한 일반화는 일정 범위(예로 자본투입률 0.05~0.1, 세율 10% 정도)내에서만 유효한 것으로 특정 범위에서의 정책 효과에 대해서는 균형을 재산출해 재평가할 필요가 있다.
서 언···················································································································· 1
요약문···················································································································· 9
제1 장 서 론···································································································· 11
1. 연구 필요성 및 주요 내용········································································· 11
2. 선행연구····································································································· 13
3. 우편시장 현황···························································································· 16
4. 택배시장 현황···························································································· 20
제2 장 산업연관표와 사회계정행렬··································································· 24
1. 산업연관표································································································· 24
2. 사회계정행렬······························································································ 36
제3 장 연산가능 일반균형모형·········································································· 51
1. 모형 구성··································································································· 51
2. 기본 함수 형태·························································································· 52
3. 주요 탄력성································································································ 56
4. 연립방정식································································································· 66
5. 캘리브레이션과 완결규칙··········································································· 71
6. 일반균형 도출···························································································· 74
제4 장 환경변화와 정책의 영향 평가································································ 80
1. 불완전경쟁 시장························································································· 80
2. 국내 우편․택배시장의 불완전 경쟁요소·················································· 83
3. 시나리오 구성 및 평가 지표····································································· 86
4. 시나리오별 균형 산출················································································ 88
제5 장 결 론······································································································ 99
[부표 1] 산업분류 및 총산출 대비 비율························································ 103
[부표 2] 우편사업 인력 및 비용····································································· 105
[부표 3] 전국 택배업 인력 및 비용······························································· 106
[부표 4] 산업간 거래 일반균형······································································ 107
참고문헌············································································································· 111
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